CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-28T02:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-28T02:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32269/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the east in STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the M9.9 flare peaking at 2024-07-28T01:57Z from AR 3766 and/or the M7.8 flare directly preceding it from the same region. Dimming and EUV wave visible in SDO AIA 193 and 335 and GOES SUVI 284, post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature is characterized by an increase in magnetic field components from 9nT to approx. 16nT, preceded by a smaller increase from 6nT to 9nT starting at 2024-07-31T10:40Z and accompanied by a sharp increase in solar wind speed from approx. 400 km/s to over 470 km/s, as well as sharp increase in solar wind density to over 10p/cc. This is possibly a combined arrival of this CME and multiple other Earth-directed CMEs.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T13:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T17:02Z (-7.75h, +7.75h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): 2.0 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0 initial CME speed: 739.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-07-28T07:02Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 54.05 hour(s)
Difference: 20.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-07-29T07:43Z
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